- August 14, 2021
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Opinion: What Presidential Contenders In Kenya Should Consider To Win
By Luzindana Adam Buyinza Team Leader
Money, Tribes, Dynasties, and the Deep State are key in determining the President of Kenya. Kenya has a population of 55 million people. Here are the most dominant Tribes in Kenya and top politicians.
1.KIKUYU (17%) which has notable political leaders such as H.E Uhuru Kenyatta President of the Republic of Kenya and Rt Hon Justin Muturi the Speaker of the National Assembly.
2.LUHYA (14.3%) whose prominent Leaders include Senator Moses Wetangula who served in the government of Kenya as Minister for Foreign Affairs from 2008 to 2010 and from 2011 to 2012, and he was Minister for Trade from 2012 to 2013. He was elected to the Senate of Kenya in 2013 as Senator Bungoma County, and became Minority Leader in the Senate. He is currently the Leader of FORD Kenya an opposition party.
Musalia Mudavadi who served as the seventh Vice President of Kenya in 2002 and as Deputy Prime Minister from 2008- 2012 May when he resigned officially to join the presidential race. He is the current Party Leader of Amani National Congress and a top contender for the Presidency.
Hon Mukhisa Kituyi who served as Secretary-General of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, UNCTAD from September 2013-February 2021 when he stepped down for his presidential ambitions. He served as Kenya’s Minister of Trade and Industry from 2002 to 2007. He is currently an aspirant for the Kenyan presidency in 2022.He is a close Friend of President Uhuru Kenyatta.
The Option: For Dr William Ruto to Win or Hon Odinga to win, both must be able to get a running mate from the Luhya Tribe.
3.KALENJIN (13.4%) with Prominent Leaders such as Dr William Arap Ruto who is currently the Deputy President and leader of UDA. He has been the Deputy President of Kenya since 2013. He served as the Acting President of Kenya between 6 and 8 October 2014 when President Uhuru Kenyatta was at the International Criminal Court (ICC), in the Hague, Netherlands.
He previously served in various ministerial positions, including the Ministries of Home Affairs, Agriculture, and Higher Education Science and Technology. He was the Secretary-General of the Kenya Africa National Union (KANU), the former ruling political party, and the MP for Eldoret North Constituency between December 1997 and January 2013. He was appointed to the position of Assistant Minister in the Office of the President by President Daniel arap Moi in 1998.
He was promoted to be Minister for Home Affairs in August 2002. Ruto has also previously served as the Chairman of the Parliamentary Select Committee on Constitutional Reform in the 9th Parliament. On 4 March 2013, he became the first Deputy President of Kenya, when he and Uhuru Kenyatta were declared winners of the 2013 Kenyan general election.
The duo ran on a Jubilee Alliance ticket. In the August 2017 General Elections, Uhuru and Ruto were declared victors after garnering 54% of the total votes cast. However, the Supreme Court of Kenya nullified the election and a fresh election was held in October 2017. The opposition boycotted the fresh election and Uhuru and Ruto were re-elected with 98% of the total votes cast.
For Ruto to win, he will need to secure majority votes from the kalenjins but he should also get a running mate from the Luhya Tribe or the Kikuyu tribe of Kenyatta. He should also keep his fingers on the state institutions. If Gideon is out of the race for either presidency or Deputy Presidency, then Dr William Ruto will stand higher chances of ascending to power keeping all other factors constant.
Hon Gideon Moi who has served in the Senate of Kenya, representing Baringo County since 2013. He was elected with a landslide win of over 80%, trouncing his opponent Jackson Kosgei.. He is also the Chairman of the Kenya African National Union (KANU), which for decades was the ruling party in Kenya. He is the youngest son of Kenya’s second president, Daniel arap Moi, and Lena Moi.. He has continued to serve as a senator and Chairman of the Senate ICT Committee. He is a top contender for the Kenyan Presidency 2022 just like H.E William Ruto. In this Article you note that Kalenjin tribe has two powerful contenders for the highest office in kenya something which might reduce the vote percentage of both of them.
4.LUO (10.7%) whose most prominent Leader is Rt Hon Raila Odinga who served as Prime Minister of Kenya from 2008 to 2013. He is the Leader of Opposition in Kenya since 2013. He was the Member of Parliament (MP) for Langata from 1992 to 2007. Raila Odinga served in the Cabinet of Kenya as Minister for Energy from 2001 to 2002 and as the Minister for Roads, Public Works and Housing from 2003 to 2005.
Odinga was appointed High Representative for Infrastructure Development at the African Union Commission in 2018. He was the main opposition candidate in the 2007 presidential election, running against the then incumbent Mwai Kibaki. In the subsequent presidential election 5 years later he placed second against Uhuru Kenyatta, garnering 5,340,546 votes, which represented 43.28% of the total votes cast. He made another attempt for the presidency in August 2017 against Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto. He is a Son of the first Vice President of Kenya, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, he draws a large chunk of his support from various regions in Kenya, most notably the Coastal Region and his native former Nyanza Province. Odinga is commonly known as Baba.
For Odinga to ascend to the Presidency, he needs a running mate from the Kalenjin Tribe, Luhya Tribe or from the Kikuyu tribe but he must ensure that he is openly backed up by President Kenyatta who has total control over the Deep State.
Odinga only needs to ensure that Gideon Moi is in the Race for Presidency or Gideon Moi is his running mate and he will ascend to power but of course, keeping other factors constant. But also if Odinga gets a running mate from the Luhya tribe with Gideon Moi in the race as Presidential candidate, Here Odinga has 80 percent chance to ascend to state power.
5. KAMBA (9.8%) whose prominent leader is H.E Kalonzo Musyoka who served as the tenth Vice-President of Kenya from 2008 to 2013. Musyoka served in the government under President Daniel Arap Moi as Minister for Foreign Affairs from 1993 until 1998. Under President Mwai Kibaki, he was Minister of Foreign Affairs again from 2003 to 2004, then Minister of the Environment from 2004 to 2005. He was an unsuccessful candidate in the 2007 presidential election, after which he was appointed as Vice-President by Kibaki in January 2008.
Musyoka is the party leader of the Wiper Democratic Movement (formerly Orange Democratic Movement-Kenya). He also serves as Chief Commissioner for The Kenya Scouts Association. He is the Chancellor of Uganda Technology and Management University based in Kampala Uganda.
Other tribes include Kamba Somali (5.8%), Kisii (5.7%),Masai (2.5%), Turkana (2.1%),Meru (4.2%),etc.
For anyone this time around to be president of Kenya, he or she needs to be either a Luo or Kalenjin enough resources, with popularity and the state backing him or her. If he is a Kalenjin he or she must be able to get 90% support of Kalenjin and his or her deputy should be a KIKUYU or Luhya…If he is a Luo, he or she must have 90% support of Luos and his or her deputy must be a Kalenjin, a Luhya or a KIKUYU..It’s also important to note that a presidential candidate who will form an alliance or a coalition with prominent Luhya, Kamba, Kalenjin, Luo and Kikuyu is likely to be the next president of Kenya 2022.
You can look at the top contenders for the position of the president of Kenya (Raila Odinga is a Luo while Dr Ruto is a Kalenjin), Gideon Moi is a Kalenji, Mudavadi a Luhya, Moses Wetangula a Luhya,etc but of course, there will be concessions basing on the ongoing discussions…From the Luo tribe, Odinga is still the only Bull..Apart from tribes and popularity, there is another factor “The Deep State”. Who will the Deep State support and who is Kenyatta supporting. Will Kenyatta be in control of state apparatus during the election period or someone else will be in charge?.
Now the game-changer is on the running mates of Dr Ruto and Hon Raila Odinga basing on which tribes the running mates will be from.
This is my analysis as a Ugandan with a keen interest in Foreign Policy and Diplomatic affairs.